I’m of the unpopular opinion that pitcher wins are a pretty useless stat.
It’s always nice to gauge a player’s value based on how much they can directly impact a team’s ability to win games. But pitcher wins are about as useful as head coach wins.
They don’t inevitably give you fraudulent data, but they surely don’t offer the whole story.
Pitchers can go seven scoreless innings, exit, and still lose a 1-0 game. They can also give up 5-6 runs and get the win when their squad piles 10 on the opposition.
Sometimes the top pitchers in baseball are rewarded appropriately, but the inconsistency devalues the stat.
Whether you are with me there or not, though, you should still care about how many wins the top MLB pitchers get in 2019. I’ll talking about why below.
Betting on Pitcher Win Totals in the MLB
The main depict is that you can bet on pitcher win totals. Wins don’t truly need to matter to you — only which pitchers get them and how many.
It could easily end up has become a tiresome undertaking. Just look at Jacob deGrom a year ago. He may have been the best limb in all of baseball, but his New York Mets burned him left and right.
That type of ill will, I can’t wish on anyone.
The good news is you can still gauge things to a certain extent, based on a pitcher’s ability, past success, and the team around him.
MyBookie.ag is allowing athletics bettors to take a stab at pitcher win totals going into the 2019 MLB betting season, and I think there is both a lot of value and some somewhat easy money.
Let’s find the best combining with my favorite pitcher win wagers for this season.
Max Scherzer- Over/ Under 15.5 Wins
Mad Max is arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball. Despite going on 35 this summer, Scherzer has lost none of his ability to completely suck the soul out of hitters at the plate.
Scherzer’s dominance is in his strikeouts, while his ability to control games combined with a strong Nats offense translates to quite a few wins. In 2018, that number was 18, and Scherzer has topped this projected total in each of the last three years and six hours over his last seven seasons.
The talent, form, past production, and operate subsistence all suggest Scherzer could again be in for a big year in the win column. In fact, he even leads the route in 2019 pitcher win odds.
PICKOver 15.5 Wins-1 40
Jacob deGrom- Over/ Under 14.5 Wins
If Scherzer wasn’t the best pitcher in the majors in 2018, then it was Mets ace Jacob deGrom. If we purely graded hurlers on their wins, of course, New York’s best pitcher likely wouldn’t have garnered much attention.
DeGrom was lights out, though, spinning a nasty 1.70 ERA en route to a Cy Young Award nod. New York struggled to a rough season, but it surely had nothing to do with deGrom giving it his all every single outing.
As good as deGrom was( and is ), I can’t bite on him get 15 wins in 2019. New York actually has a loaded roster if you just look at them on paper, but they’ll go into the new season with some guys already banged up.
Even if deGrom is as good as he was last year, there has to be a legit concern his team objective up leaving him hanging more often than not again this season. Another Cy Young isn’t out of the issues to, but I’m not pulling the trigger on the over here.
PICKUnder 14.5 Wins-1 05
Jose Berrios- Over/ Under 12.5 Wins
Working our style down the win total count a bit, we come to Minnesota superstar Jose Berrios, who just finally began developing into a stud last year. He was still erratic on his route to a pedestrian 12 -1 1 mark, but he dazzled with some huge outings and was at his best( 9-4, 3.03 ERA) at home.
Berrios is still just 24, and last year, he didn’t have much help most days he toed the rubber. Minnesota went out of their route to give their offense a boost, bringing in superstar mashers like Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, and Jonathan Schoop.
In theory, an already explosive Twins lineup could be even better, and that should help with Berrios’ win total. If he can up his game, lower his ERA, and be a bit smoother on the road, he stands a very good chance of making the over in his best season yet.
PICKOver 12.5 Wins +105
Clayton Kershaw- Over/ Under 12.5 Wins
Usually, you’d expect to see “the worlds largest” Clayton Kershaw up higher near the 15.5 -win projections, but he was not his normal self in 2018. Already starting off 2019 with some ailments, bettors will want to gauge if he’s going to be able to get back to who he was two years ago.
It’s a little odd that Kershaw has fought, as he’s still just 30 years old. That isn’t to say he’s been bad. However, his strikeouts were down last season, and he posted his highest Epoch in nine years.
The fact that everyone is concerned about a guy who still rendered a 2.73 ERA and ran 9-5 as a starter is hilarious, but it shows the bar Kershaw has set for himself.
He may never surpass previous expectations again, but Kershaw is still very good and should be in line for a strong season if he can get/ remain healthy. Blessed with a loaded offense around him in a ballpark he tends to thrive at, there is every reason to think Kershaw will be at his best again in 2019.
After topping this 12.5 projection in six of his last eight campaigns, I’m all aboard a mild revival here.
PICKOver 12.5 Wins-1 15
Patrick Corbin- Over/ Under 12.5 Wins
How many wins Corbin will get this year is one of those MLB player prop bets that ranks right up there with how many home run Bryce Harper will reach in Philly. Both of these guys chased money to new teams, and oddly enough, Corbin landed in Harper’s old stomping grounds.
The Nats may end up being just fine in the post-Bryce era, and Corbin’s elite strikeout ability should have a lot to do with that. Max Scherzer potentially chasing 16 wins may get you off the scent of Corbin, but him get 13 of his own in his first season with Washington isn’t that unrealistic.
Corbin did just that in Arizona, where he notched 14 wins in 2017 and followed that up with a breakout 2018 campaign. The wins dropped( 11 ), but Corbin blew up in the Ks department, jumping up by virtually 70 whiffs and also posting the best Epoch( 3.15) of his entire career.
It’s possible Corbin is just a one-year wonder, but the talent is there, and he gets an upgrade in his change of scenery. If he pitches well, 13 wins feel like a lock.
PICKOver 12.5 Wins-1 15
German Marquez- Over/ Under 11.5 Wins
Another guy on the increases that can churn out the strikeouts is Rockies hurler German Marquez.
The 24 -year-old picked up where he left off in a solid 2017 campaign, but he upped his wins( 11 to 14) and tossed 83 more strikeouts en route to a career-best 3.77 ERA.
It’s true that Marquez has the unfortunate chore of pitching at the volatile Coors Field, but he’s been scorching hot on the road and does enough at home to balance things out. He’s also only to be good, so there is a strong debate he could be in for an even better year in 2019.
Bettors don’t need a better season, though. They merely require Marquez to match what he did last year or regress somewhat. I believe 12 wins is very doable dedicated his talent and production the past two seasons.
PICKOver 11.5 Wins-1 20
Charlie Morton- Over/ Under 11.5 Wins
One other pitcher win total I don’t mind targeting is Charlie Morton’s, as the 35 -year-old switchings to the Tampa Bay Rays. It’s possible he was able to keep the good times rolling in Florida, but exiting the convenience of Houston has to impact him to some degree.
That should go without saying, considering the Astros were a 100+ win squad, and nobody knows what to expect out of the Rays. Fewer wins entail a potential drop-off in production, while it has to be concerning that Morton’s two best seasons as a pro( by far) came with the Astros.
I’m foreseeing some regression here, while the change of scenery lowers Morton’s ceiling. After registering 29 wins over the past two years, Morton isn’t the safest bet to reach 12 in 2019.
PICKUnder 11.5 Wins-1 05
There are way more pitcher win totals to bet on over at MyBookie, and as you’ve seen here at GamblingSites.com lately, there’s plenty of MLB player prop bets to wager on in general.
The coming 2019 MLB season is a very exciting one for a number of reasons. Whether you love some value with a World Series or division winner gamble or have some props you want to target, there is plenty to get amped up for — and numerous ways to construct some cash.
These pickings are some of my favorite ways to cash in on the buzz, and you can head to MyBookie.ag right now and back them if you want.
Just only keep in intellect that my personal predilection isn’t always going to align with yours. Player props also take the entire season to cash out, too, so consider some other wagers that can pay out early in the year.
Whatever you decide, I wish you luck. Enjoy the 2019 MLB season!
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